GRM 2010 GRM 2011

Abstract Details

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--Opportunities and limitations of the Gulf- Asia security partnership in the coming decade---
Paper Proposal Text :

--Opportunities and limitations of the Gulf- Asia security partnership in the coming decade---
By Atul Aneja, West Asia Correspondent, “The Hindu”, Dubai
The Gulf-Asia economic relationship, built on the bedrock of an energy partnership, but not confined to that alone, is expected to consolidate substantially over the coming years. Already the four Asian heavyweights-India, China, South Korea and Japan have emerged as the largest consumers of Gulf oil. This trend is likely to accelerate in tune with the anticipated expansion of the four economies in the coming years. The discovery of shale gas especially United States and Canada, with the implication of the likely emergence of energy autonomy in the West, is likely to add yet another impetus to deepen the energy bonds between the Gulf and the Asia-4. The Gulf is, and will remain, not only a key supplier of oil and gas; its interdependence with Asia can only be expected to increase appreciably as it becomes a major investor in countries such as India in the infrastructure sector. The second wave of economic expansion in the Gulf that may be on the horizon is likely to keep open the flow of human resources across the value chain between the region and Asia.
Conversely, the critical and deepening stakes of India, China, South Korea and Japan in the Gulf, coupled with the increasing distraction of the countries in the West, especially the United States from the region, for reasons of economy and geography, is adding a deep strategic dimension to the Gulf-Asia-4 relationship. Asian stakes in Gulf stability have increased as never before.
As a strategic vacuum begins to develop, and given their compounding common stakes in the Gulf, the four Asian heavyweights may now have to examine the promotion of stability in the region, including Iran, as a priority, not individually but possibly as a Asia-4 collective. The era of pure bilateralism is likely to end soon, as the Gulf countries, for reasons of domestic vulnerability are pushed into greater political consolidation on the one end, and shared interests beckon a collective response from Asia.
In the light of the new compulsions that bind them, the paper will analyse the scope of security cooperation between the Gulf and the Asia-4 in areas, among others, of tanker security, as ships pass through the two strategic choke points of the Strait of Hormuz and the Malacca Straits; off-shore oil rig security and counter-piracy operations. It will examine the physical density of the security cover that Asian heavyweights can provide in the Gulf in tune with their security doctrines, budgetary allocation trends especially in warship construction and procurement, and investments in the military technology arena. Finally the paper will analyse that how much impact will their negative historical baggage and disputes in the South China Sea, retard and undermine the capacity of the Asia-4 in projecting ---military influence in the Gulf region over the coming decade.