GRM 2010 GRM 2011

Abstract Details

 
AUTHOR NAME
 
Family Name:
Althubaitee
 
First Name:
Alaa
 
ABSTRACT OF PAPER
 
Title of Paper:
Can Saudi Medical Colleges Fill the Gap of Physicians Shortages? A Prediction Study for Graduates of Saudi Medical Colleges
 
Paper Proposal Text :
Can Saudi Medical Colleges Fill the Gap of Physicians Shortages? A Prediction Study for Graduates of Saudi Medical Colleges.
Mohammad Alkhazim, PT, PhD and Alaa Althubaiti, PhD
King Saud ben Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences
Correspondent/ Presenter: Dr. Althubaiti (thubaitia@ksau-hs.edu.sa)

Saudi Arabia faces a critical shortage in Physicians where Saudi physicians form 37.89% of the physician manpower, only. Such shortage is manifested by the great expansion on its health services. The fifth development plan of the country is suggesting that it needs to add 29128 physicians to the health manpower by year 2014 to maintain its average of physicians (2.7 for each 100,000 of population). With the difficulty in continuing the dependency on expatriate manpower, Saudi Arabia invested heavily in expanding its medical education. Within five years; colleges of medicine number increased from 13 colleges to 29 colleges (2005 to 2010). This expansion raises the question: how much can these colleges fill the gap of physician shortage in Saudi Arabia?
The objective of this study is to predict the productivity of Saudi colleges of medicine within the next few years and their contribution to solve the problem of shortages in physician numbers in Saudi Arabia.
The study utilizes the data of all (old and new) Saudi colleges of medicine to predict the average graduate rate. Graduation rates are difficult to estimate since they depend on longitudinal flawed data in most cases. Several methods are applied to refine the data, so that an accurate prediction is guaranteed.
The outcome of this study will assist planners of medical education on estimating the growth of their colleges. Moreover, it will assist in estimating the future needs for postgraduate training program in medical fields. For the planers of health services, it will help in planning future local and international recruitment of physicians, accordingly.
 
 
 

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