GRM 2010 GRM 2011

Abstract Details

 
AUTHOR NAME
 
Family Name:
Hamedi
 
First Name:
Zoheir
 
ABSTRACT OF PAPER
 
Title of Paper:
A Strategic foresight study using scenarios for a transition towards a more sustainable energy system of the GCC countries up to 2050.
 
Paper Proposal Text :
ABSTRACT:
“A STRATEGIC FORESIGHT STUDY USING SCENARIOS FOR A TRANSITION TOWARDS A MORE SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEM OF THE GCC COUNTRIES UP TO 2050”

Once a topic upheld by environmentalists and scientists, climate change is increasingly one that is ranked as urgent by governments, non-governmental organisations (NGOs), international organisations and industry. Combined with additional concerns around energy security, the inevitable depletion of fossil fuels and the volatility in energy markets, decisions at the highest level of government and industry are now taking a different path that will fundamentally transform our relationship to the energy that drives our economies and societies. Faced by these challenges and concerns, the energy system of the world economy is, indeed, at the early stage of a gradual and sustained shift towards cleaner, more sustainable and more diversified energy sources.
The future of the energy system of the GCC economies will strongly depend on this world tendency as they are one of the main producers and providers of hydrocarbons to the world economy and their economies rely almost entirely on the hydrocarbons on two aspects, first of all, as a source of revenue and, therefore, a core element of their political economy and, secondly, hydrocarbons constitute the only energy source fuelling the economic engine of the GCC countries as the energy mix of the region is exclusively composed of oil and gas. In addition, the economies of the Gulf are under an increased pressure in order to improve the energy efficiency of their economies for the following reasons: they have one of the largest carbon footprint per capita in the world as the GCC countries are among the top 25 countries of the world as far as CO2 emissions are concerned with the UAE and Kuwait leading (United Nations Statistic Division, 2007); and, the ever increasing domestic consumption and demand for electricity that is putting an increasing pressure on the available reserves of hydrocarbons to the export market.
Grounded on this new international energy environment and the challenges facing the GCC countries in order to improve their energy efficiency and diversify their energy sources in the long-term, it is proposed, through this study, to present a number of plausible future scenarios that will explore the possible futures of the energy mix of the GCC countries up to 2050 and how energy policies could be shaped within the context of a hydrocarbon-rich rentier economic system. The scenarios will be built by through the following process:

1. Through a desk research initiate a preliminary analysis of the energy system of the GCC countries, within the global energy context, using the structural analysis known as STEEPLED analysis (Social; Technological; Economic; Ecological; Political; Economic; Social; Ethics; Legal; Demographics);
2. A structural analysis in order to develop a representation as comprehensive as possible of the energy system of the GCC and to reduce the complexity of the system to the essential variables which will be determined following in depth semi-structured interviews with a sample of relevant actors of the energy system of the GCC in addition to a Real-Time Delphi questionnaire with experts in order to broaden the conversation.
3. Based on the input from the two first steps, a morphological analysis will allow us to build the scenarios.
The outcome of this process will be a number of scenarios that I am proposing to present at the workshop with policy recommendations.
 
 
 

WITH THE GENEROUS SUPPORT OF