GRM 2010 GRM 2011

Abstract Details

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Title of Paper:
Gas Market in Europe: An Uncertain Future for GCC Exporters
Paper Proposal Text :
The security of energy pipelines in Turkey can no longer be taken for granted. The stability of Turkey directly impacts on both the volume and the manner in which natural gas reaches Europe from a variety of current or potential future suppliers. The risk of an unstable Turkey carries with it the risk of major disruptions to current and future gas supplies.

That is the thesis of this paper and, as such, it has profound implications for the future of natural gas in Europe as a whole, and, of course, for Turkey itself.

From the perspective of Gulf suppliers, the most important consequence of changed security conditions in Turkey is the increased importance of LNG imports in the European gas equation. Although much of the focus on LNG naturally concentrates on both current and future supplies from the United States, the role of Gulf suppliers, notably Qatar, remains relevant in terms of both overall European supplies and, in particular, in terms of European resilience in the event of any cut-off of pipeline imports.

The paper is structured as follows:

1. Security conditions in Turkey and their immediate impact on energy transit.
2. Turkey’s role as an energy destination and transit state.
3. Instability: The impact on energy of the Kurdish War and other factors.
4. The development of the Southern Gas Corridor.
5. Gas from the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.
6. The revival of Turkish Stream.
7. Conclusion: The overall impact on European gas security.