GRM 2010 GRM 2011

Abstract Details

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Title of Paper:
Prospects for Collective Security in the Gulf: Changing Dynamics of Threat Perception from Low Intensity Conflict to War
Paper Proposal Text :
The security landscape facing the Gulf states has dramatically changed, domestically and internationally, since the beginning of Arab Spring events in Tunisia on December 18, 2010. Therefore, the constellations of international politics, and the dynamics of the Gulf region and its surrounding environment, are urgently demanding a substantial transformation of the security understanding of all states in the Gulf. The purpose of this work is to explore these ongoing changes and investigate how they are shaping the security fundamentals and defence agenda of the Gulf countries. This study will explore and seek to answer the following particular research questions:

• What are regional and global geopolitical changes affecting the Gulf states’ search for a collective security and defence organisation?
• What are the prospects for the evolution of a common security and defence perception of the Gulf states’?
• Do the Gulf states have the capacity to handle the fundamental security issues which are evolving from a low intensity conflict type missions to some collective security type war scenarios?
• What are the key features of proposals made by some of the Gulf states to achieve a pan-Gulf collective security organisation?

A deeper understanding of the factors involved in creating a collective security framework is shaped by threat perception which they relate to a wide spectrum of security and defence issues from low intensity conflict to war. While the key debate will be related to the efforts of characterising possible features of the Gulf collective security, the existent factors to conflict scenarios which affect these processes and characteristics of searching for collective security in the Gulf will be given particular attention. In order to develop a deeper analysis of the security and defence factors involved in creating a collective security architecture, a fundamental political transformation within the Gulf regimes would be necessary. This paper will dwell upon the conceptual analysis of specific conflict, crisis and war situations, different aspects of the Gulf states’ security challenges and how they relate to pan-Gulf collective security organisation that would expedite a zone of confidence in the region. The concern of this paper would be to identify the parameters of conflict, crisis and war within which a Gulf collective security framework could respond and the changing security dynamics which might facilitate or impede its effective establishment and functioning.