GRM 2010 GRM 2011

Abstract Details

 
AUTHOR NAME
 
Family Name:
Trabelsi
 
First Name:
Ahlem
 
ABSTRACT OF PAPER
 
Title of Paper:
Oil price impact on economic growth of GCC countries
 
Paper Proposal Text :
The current drop in oil prices has revived the debate on macroeconomics effects of oil price changes (volatility). The aim of this article is to study the relationship between oil price changes and economic growth of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. This relationship is all the more pertinent when taking account (we consider) the way (how) the petrodollars are recycled.
To explain this relationship in the case of GCC countries, we test respectively the hypothesis of the asymmetric response of real GDP growth to oil price increases and oil price decreases (to oil price shocks) Hamilton (1983, 2003), the breakdown of oil price-macroeconomy relationship (Hooker, 1996) and differentiated oil price effects depending on the phase of the business cycle (Raymond and Rich, 1997).
Our study provides a double contribution. We study the transmission channels of oil price changes’ effect with a focus on current and financial accounts to highlight the role of the wealth effect. Even more, we integrate to the Kilian’s model (2014) two important variables measuring the ability of GCC countries to avoid steep spending cuts and limit the drag of growth: reserves and foreign assets.
 
 
 

WITH THE GENEROUS SUPPORT OF