GRM 2010 GRM 2011

Abstract Details

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Title of Paper:
Unconventional Control
Paper Proposal Text :
The political and economic impacts of the growing worldwide production of shale gas and shale oil on Gulf nations.
The purpose of this paper is to discuss the conceptual subject of energy security and sustainability as well as its practical implementation and impacts on the GCC countries in the light of growing production of unconventional oil and gas around the world. It takes into consideration the fact that the geopolitical energy environment in this region is highly dynamic and unstable.
The paper will address the challenges of an increased production of shale gas and shale oil to the Gulf Nations, highlighting the facts that energy is:
- A primary factor which defines the geostrategic situation in the GCC countries
- The very engine which runs modern life mainly in developed countries.
It directly affects lifestyles and interests of individuals, communities and nations in both exporting and importing countries.
Traditionally, the Gulf States have been controlling this engine to a large extent by being major suppliers of oil and gas to the USA, Europe, Japan, and other nations like China, Korea and India. Meanwhile, some importers have equally kept a tight control over the energy sector in the GCC through technology, organizational support, and know how.
With the new shale discoveries, will importers be less dependent on GCC sources of energy? What will be the effects therefore on the region’s geostrategic position?
Recent reports have shown that the USA for example is bracing itself to become a major exporter of shale produced Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) with an ever increasing number of shale oil and shale gas producers, including some oil majors, on whom GCC countries depend for the development of their national energy resources. The US is expected to compete against GCC producers in key markets mainly in Asia and Europe.
Reports have also expected gas demand to grow from 1.7 percent and 1.9 percent per year until 2035. The volume of supply is hard to forecast in the light of the increased production of shale Gas, and the development of other producing regions like Brazil, the Mediterranean, India, and some GCC Countries themselves as well.
The methodology of the research will depend mainly on published an unpublished reports and views of experts, and the personal analysis of the writer.
Finally, it will try to come with recommendations on how to deal with the expected challenges.