GRM 2010 GRM 2011

Abstract Details

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Will Qatar remain the king of LNG?
Paper Proposal Text :
Qatar is the largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the world, and the country's exports of LNG, crude oil, and petroleum products provide a significant portion of government revenues. Natural gas is at the center of Qatar's energy sector; almost 80 percent of Qatar's gas exports are in the form of LNG, less than two thirds (62.7 percent) of which is shipped to Asia. Helped by rising global demand amid tight supply, Qatar has seen its LNG exports surge from over 18 million tons a year (mt / y) in 2002 to 77.41 mt / y in 2012, representing nearly one third (32.6 percent) of global supply in 2012.
Nevertheless, LNG king Qatar faces formidable challenges. First a changing landscape in global gas markets with more competitors entering the scene and the emergence of new LNG-exporting hubs. Second, the increase in supply could lead to lower prices. Third, the availability of alternative supplies into Asia will allow buyers there to negotiate hard over long-term supply contracts. This may mean a challenge to the standard Qatari model of tying long-term contracts to oil prices rather than natural gas prices. As a result, competition from new suppliers of LNG could hit Qatar's chief source of hydrocarbons revenue, resulting in downward pressure on pricing which Qatar has been resistant to reform from oil-indexed linkages.
In this context, the paper tries to answer the following questions? Will Qatar lose its position as the largest LNG exporter? If this happens, what are the geopolitical repercussions? And finally, what are the strategies that will be employed by Qatar to deal with these strategic developments?